Paired Testing - by Jack Ogilvie

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Have you heard about? Read about it? Been told about it?

"Paired Testing". Evidently Ralph has had some inquiries
about this type of testing and would like a conversation
starter regarding this topic. I have some knowledge of
this subject, limited though it may be, through ASTM
(American Society for Testing and Materials) of which I
have been a member for many years.

I will attempt to give a general overview with the
understanding I am not to be flogged for any erroneous
information.

I had the privilege to meet a gentleman a year or so ago
by the name of John Marin who was seeking to have a
standard written by ASTM relating to what was being called
the "Marin Protocol" or paired testing. John I apologize
ahead of time for not remembering if the idea was yours
originally or if you simply thought it was a good idea and
promoted it. Either way I cannot think of anyone better to
explain it if you read this and care to do so.

Here is my understanding of Paired testing.

In a situation involving a court case where each side has
a witness and those witnesses are diametrically opposed,
or giving completely contradictory accounts of the same
incident, the probability that one of them is not being
truthful is high. If the two were tested, by different
examiners with demonstrated proficiency, one should pass
and one should fail, giving the accuracy of the exams a
very high mathematical probability (98%) of being correct.

The witness failing the test would not be allowed to waste
the courts time giving false testimony. Only the witness
that passed the exam would be able to testify.

Ok, I bet that raised some eyebrows. First of all, the
only way this works is if the examiners involved can prove
their abilities to a degree of 80% or better. This would
be done through the use of a certifying panel. A
prospective examiner would have to read and correctly
identify D.I., N.D.I., and N.O., to a degree of 80% or
better, on the charts of 100 previously run exams with
confirmed results. They would also have to submit video
tapes of some of their exams for verification of proper
testing procedures such as pre-test interview, the setting
of comparison questions and other components that complete
a good examination.

Examiners who are certified to set standards giving a test
to two subjects where one must be lying and one must be
truthful would produce a mathematically proven accuracy
level. This would obviously save the courts some time and
would eliminate at least some false testimony from
affecting the outcome of a trial.

I believe Mr. Marin has had some discussions with judges
and others in the criminal justice system and their
response was favorable.

I don't know if this type testing would have the desired
effect throughout the criminal justice system that
Mr. Marin and others are hoping for. I do believe it would
have some benefit to the Polygraph profession and the
examiners who take the time to get certified. When you can
show mathematically the accuracy of a polygraph you should
have the attention of the doubters. It is hard to argue
with numbers. These are not statistics that can be
manipulated.

I believe that this type of test should require a higher
fee than might normally be charged. I also believe that an
examiner certified in paired testing could turn out to be
in high demand.

I hope that I have at least begun to give some insight
into "paired testing". I know when we discussed this at
the ASTM meetings it was a very controversial issue. I
suspect it will be the same whenever and wherever
examiners discuss it. I myself am not completely sure how
I feel about it but I am trying to keep an open mind. I
hope you all will do the same.

Remember don't shoot the messenger. Hopefully someone out
there knows more about this than I do and can clear up any
misinformation. What are your thoughts?

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